UK general election: our experts react
We asked some of our experts for their immediate reaction to the UK general election, to give an investment perspective on what the future may hold for the market.
As the nation wakes up after polling day, the public, press and markets will be digesting news of the result. To give an investment perspective on what it means for markets, we asked some of our experts for their immediate reaction.
“The UK market has very healthy underlying fundamentals and is trading at near all-time high levels. Yet frustratingly at the same time, the valuations of UK stocks are also at record low levels because of the political uncertainty of the last few years. There is every reason to hope that the new government will usher in a period of political stability, prioritise the Edinburgh reforms and hold themselves accountable to a clear industrial growth strategy that will cement the UK’s recovery and turn it back into a key focus for international investors.”
“This election was decided without major policy announcements from either of the main parties, and we are hopeful that a stable political backdrop will prove to be good for the economy and for market sentiment. UK equities have enjoyed solid performance this year to date, and we are looking for a sustained rebound in the market, helped by supportive factors such as weakening inflation, a potential Bank of England rate cut, attractive valuations for UK equities and good earnings performance from UK companies.”
“After nearly a decade of political shocks in the UK, today’s election result feels unusual for a Labour win having been so predictable. I expect this to be good news for the UK equity market over the medium-term, if for no other reason that markets and companies alike crave certainty. A government with a clear mandate will give companies confidence to hire people and invest in the future, while markets can better discount future company profits accurately.
However, ‘certainty’ is a still a relative concept given Labour’s campaign rhetoric to deliver change – so it’s important for investors to consider how new legislation, tax and spending plans might affect individual companies. We hope that Labour can start addressing productivity issues through planning reform and infrastructure investment, while also reenergising the UK’s capital markets. We are encouraged that Labour seems to recognise the problems, but would stress the urgency with which the remedies are required.”
“Relative to the high level of uncertainty seen in the aftermath of international elections over the last few weeks (South Africa, India, Mexico, EU, France) and the concerns around President Biden’s performance at the first US presidential debate, the UK election has been something of a non-event. Labour’s victory means that we have now entered a period of relative stability in UK politics which is in stark contrast to the possibility of continued volatility elsewhere, especially in the run up to the US presidential elections in November. The UK could well look like a haven of political stability, a very different landscape to the years since the Brexit referendum.
The new government has to contend with the perilous scale of the UK’s twin deficits, with the adverse market reaction to Liz Truss’s mini budget almost two years ago still vivid in our memories. Labour will need to convince the market, and also the electorate, that they are fiscally prudent while still improving the shoddy state of UK public services and anaemic productivity and growth profile, none of which will be easy.
Growth will be their get-out-of-Jail free card, easier said but hard to deliver. They look likely to rest their hopes on a better trade deal with the EU to try and reduce friction at the border with the EU, and also by liberalising the UK planning laws. If they can succeed in this endeavour, then there may be some renewed hope for better UK growth along with less inflationary pressure within the UK. Despite the UK’s fiscal position, we believe Gilt yields look cheap compared to other countries that have a weak fiscal position (e.g. France) so there may well be some flows towards Gilts from other challenged sovereign bond markets that continue to have political problems now our election is done and dusted.”
The value of active minds: independent thinking
A key feature of Jupiter’s investment approach is that we eschew the adoption of a house view, instead preferring to allow our specialist fund managers to formulate their own opinions on their asset class. As a result, it should be noted that any views expressed – including on matters relating to environmental, social and governance considerations – are those of the author(s), and may differ from views held by other Jupiter investment professionals.
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