Asia Pacific (ex Japan): What’s on our minds
Asia Pacific (ex Japan): What’s on our minds
In their latest note, Jason Pidcock and Sam Konrad take a closer look at the latest economic data and news coming from Australia, India and China, as well as the longer-term trends they’re seeing the Asia Pacific (ex Japan) region.
Australia’s immense wealth
Australia has a history of strong population growth – in the last 50 years it grew by 1.4% a year on average. Since 1972, its population has doubled, to 26.5m in Q1 2023, with population growth split roughly evenly between migration and natural increase.
Australia’s retirement savings system, featuring mandatory contributions into the superannuation system, combined with strong population growth, is supporting asset prices, as well as providing a rapidly growing pool of retirement savings, which is already the fourth largest in the world. The 2023 Intergenerational Report (IGR)1 projects that superannuation balances will jump further, to a ~218% share of GDP by 2062/63 – from $3tn now, up to as much as $33tn in 2062/63. Household wealth averaged at roughly $2m for those aged 55+ (for CY 22/23); superannuation benefits (excluding Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSFs)) in 2022/2023 surged 20% year-on-year to $102bn, equivalent to a >8% share of household income.
There are long-term structural reasons to expect foreigners to continue to favour Australia as a preferred destination option. These include the relative resilience of the Australian economy, which avoided a recession for a world record of three decades (until the Covid-19 pandemic), which has resulted in living standards increasing to among the highest levels globally. There is also a recognised trust in the Australian government and institutional arrangements that impact the “quality” of life.
Australia’s population is ageing, but the rate has materially slowed (i.e. improved) given the ongoing fast pace of migration. Overall, the median age of the Australian population is 37.9 years, which is already a significant 3-years younger than the OECD average. By 2050, Australia’s median age is expected to increase to 41.8, but populations in many other countries will age more rapidly. Hence, by 2050, Australia is expected to become an even more significant 5-years younger than the OECD average.
Australia’s share of migrants with a tertiary education is 62%, which is among the highest in the world. It’s also much higher than Australia’s native-born population, with a 43% share. The Australian government Final Budget Outcome (FBO) for 22/23 was a surplus of 0.9% of GDP (or $22bn), far better than comparable economies.
Source: UBS
Australia’s retirement savings system, featuring mandatory contributions into the superannuation system, combined with strong population growth, is supporting asset prices, as well as providing a rapidly growing pool of retirement savings, which is already the fourth largest in the world. The 2023 Intergenerational Report (IGR)1 projects that superannuation balances will jump further, to a ~218% share of GDP by 2062/63 – from $3tn now, up to as much as $33tn in 2062/63. Household wealth averaged at roughly $2m for those aged 55+ (for CY 22/23); superannuation benefits (excluding Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSFs)) in 2022/2023 surged 20% year-on-year to $102bn, equivalent to a >8% share of household income.
There are long-term structural reasons to expect foreigners to continue to favour Australia as a preferred destination option. These include the relative resilience of the Australian economy, which avoided a recession for a world record of three decades (until the Covid-19 pandemic), which has resulted in living standards increasing to among the highest levels globally. There is also a recognised trust in the Australian government and institutional arrangements that impact the “quality” of life.
Australia’s population is ageing, but the rate has materially slowed (i.e. improved) given the ongoing fast pace of migration. Overall, the median age of the Australian population is 37.9 years, which is already a significant 3-years younger than the OECD average. By 2050, Australia’s median age is expected to increase to 41.8, but populations in many other countries will age more rapidly. Hence, by 2050, Australia is expected to become an even more significant 5-years younger than the OECD average.
Australia’s share of migrants with a tertiary education is 62%, which is among the highest in the world. It’s also much higher than Australia’s native-born population, with a 43% share. The Australian government Final Budget Outcome (FBO) for 22/23 was a surplus of 0.9% of GDP (or $22bn), far better than comparable economies.
Source: UBS
India – Modi set to win general election
Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) win in the three state elections of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, was much better than predicted or expected by exit polls and markets, reinforcing expectations of a Modi win in 2024 national elections, with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP. Results for the four state elections show BJP gains in seats and vote share in each state. In 2018, BJP lost elections to Congress in the states of MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh; all three have been won back with clear majorities.
ITC has become India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturer in the foods space by domestic sales (in the nine months to September, source: NielsenIQ). ITC has emerged as the largest packaged foods company (25+ mother brands, total/direct reach 7/2.6m), benefitting from formalisation tailwinds and high innovation intensity. It occupies top three positions in most categories with share gains (Aashirvaad flour, Sunrise, premium biscuits). Three in four households consume ITC’s food brands, and three quarters of Indian retail carries ITC’s food brands. ITC’s FMCG reach is at 7m outlets, and the business has launched 300 new products in the last three years.
ITC has become India’s largest fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturer in the foods space by domestic sales (in the nine months to September, source: NielsenIQ). ITC has emerged as the largest packaged foods company (25+ mother brands, total/direct reach 7/2.6m), benefitting from formalisation tailwinds and high innovation intensity. It occupies top three positions in most categories with share gains (Aashirvaad flour, Sunrise, premium biscuits). Three in four households consume ITC’s food brands, and three quarters of Indian retail carries ITC’s food brands. ITC’s FMCG reach is at 7m outlets, and the business has launched 300 new products in the last three years.
Backdrop remains tough for China
China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 49, weaker than the median forecast of 49.6 by economists (source: National Bureau of Statistics), marking the third consecutive month below 50. Employment remained in contraction for the ninth time in the past ten months. Meanwhile, China’s real interest rates (a gauge for actual borrowing cost) hit 3% in November, the highest level in almost three years, as deflationary pressure builds. The slide in China’s home sales accelerated in December, underscoring the challenges of the sector. Across the 100 biggest real estate companies, the value of new home sales fell 34.6% year-on-year, to 451.3bn yuan ($64bn), compared with a 29.6% decline in November.
More Chinese agencies and government-backed firms across the country have ordered staff to stop bringing iPhones and other foreign devices to work, including those made by Samsung. The move was broader than previous reported measures in September, when only a small number of state agencies in Beijing and Tianjin were telling staff to leave foreign devices at home.
The Biden administration is reportedly discussing raising tariffs on some Chinese goods, marking a shift from earlier discussions that focused on whether to lower them (source: Wall Street Journal). The targeted goods include Chinese electric vehicles, solar products and EV battery packs for protecting the US clean-energy industry.
We continue to have no exposure to mainland China. We believe China has many deep-rooted problems, including its political system, debt and demographic headwinds, and it is increasingly viewed with suspicion by trading partners, direct investors and portfolio investors.
More Chinese agencies and government-backed firms across the country have ordered staff to stop bringing iPhones and other foreign devices to work, including those made by Samsung. The move was broader than previous reported measures in September, when only a small number of state agencies in Beijing and Tianjin were telling staff to leave foreign devices at home.
The Biden administration is reportedly discussing raising tariffs on some Chinese goods, marking a shift from earlier discussions that focused on whether to lower them (source: Wall Street Journal). The targeted goods include Chinese electric vehicles, solar products and EV battery packs for protecting the US clean-energy industry.
We continue to have no exposure to mainland China. We believe China has many deep-rooted problems, including its political system, debt and demographic headwinds, and it is increasingly viewed with suspicion by trading partners, direct investors and portfolio investors.
2024 outlook
This year, we expect to see a two-way pull for markets. The prospect of looser monetary policy globally may allow for P/E expansion and higher prices; meanwhile, many businesses could struggle to prevent their earnings declining if we see weaker economic growth and rising unemployment in key markets, such as the US. Though inflationary pressures have eased, the next leg of this cycle may be one of weaker growth, as the lagged effects of the higher interest rates we’ve seen kick in. Nevertheless, we still expect to see growth in earnings and dividends coming from a good number of the companies that we hold. These include the technology businesses we invest in, which experienced a difficult 2023 but where we think we will likely see an earnings rebound in 2024. Infrastructure, property and telecom stocks ought to feel some relief from a cessation in the rise of interest rates, particularly if combined with a further decline in bond yields.
2024 will be notable for the large number of general elections happening all around the world. In Asia, these include elections in Taiwan, India, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Outside of the Asia Pacific region, key international elections will include those of the US and, most likely, the UK. If incumbents are ousted, we will be mindful of the potential resulting policy changes.
Read our full 2024 outlook here: Outlook 2024: Asia Pacific – A two-way pull for stock markets? – Jupiter Asset Management (jupiteram.com)
2024 will be notable for the large number of general elections happening all around the world. In Asia, these include elections in Taiwan, India, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Outside of the Asia Pacific region, key international elections will include those of the US and, most likely, the UK. If incumbents are ousted, we will be mindful of the potential resulting policy changes.
Read our full 2024 outlook here: Outlook 2024: Asia Pacific – A two-way pull for stock markets? – Jupiter Asset Management (jupiteram.com)
The Jupiter Asia Pacific Income Fund (IRL)
Past performance is no indication of current or future performance and does not take into account commissions and costs incurred on the issue/redemption of shares. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
Source: Morningstar, NAV to NAV, gross income reinvested, net of fees, in USD, to 31.12.2023. Fund inception: 13.09.2000. Since FM inception: 22.03.2023. Peer group: EEA Fund Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Equity. Benchmark: MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan NR USD. In March 2023, the Fund changed its Investment Objective. The performance before this date was achieved under circumstances that no longer apply.
Source: Morningstar, NAV to NAV, gross income reinvested, net of fees, in USD, to 31.12.2023. Fund inception: 13.09.2000. Since FM inception: 22.03.2023. Peer group: EEA Fund Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Equity. Benchmark: MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan NR USD. In March 2023, the Fund changed its Investment Objective. The performance before this date was achieved under circumstances that no longer apply.
Country weightings: Australia 29.8%, India 18.1%, Taiwan 17.6%, Singapore 11.5%, South Korea 9.5%, Hong Kong 7.0%, Indonesia 5.2%, Thailand 0.8%.
Top 10 holdings: Mediatek 6.5%, ITC 6.3%, TSMC 6.0%, Samsung Electronics 5.5%, Hon Hai 5.2%, BHP 5.2%, Woodside Energy 4.2%, Power Grid 3.8%, Singapore Telecom 3.7%, DBS 3.6%.
Source: Jupiter, FactSet, as of 31.12.2023
Holding examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Top 10 holdings: Mediatek 6.5%, ITC 6.3%, TSMC 6.0%, Samsung Electronics 5.5%, Hon Hai 5.2%, BHP 5.2%, Woodside Energy 4.2%, Power Grid 3.8%, Singapore Telecom 3.7%, DBS 3.6%.
Source: Jupiter, FactSet, as of 31.12.2023
Holding examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Fund-related risks
- Investment risk – there is no guarantee that the Fund will achieve its objective. A capital loss of some or all of the amount invested may occur.
- Geographic concentration risk – a fall in the Asia Pacific markets may have a significant impact on the value of the Fund because it primarily invests in these markets.
- Company shares (i.e. equities) risk – the value of Company shares and similar investments may go down as well as up in response to the performance of individual companies and can be affected by daily stock market movements and general market conditions.
- REITs risk – REITs are investment vehicles that invest in real estate, which are subject to risks associated with direct property ownership.
- Stock Connect risk – Stock Connect is governed by regulations which are subject to change. Trading limitations and restrictions on foreign ownership may constrain the Fund’s ability to pursue its investment strategy.
- Currency risk – the Fund is denominated in USD but holds assets denominated in other currencies. The value of your shares may rise and fall as a result of exchange rate movements.
- Emerging markets risk – less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries.
- Liquidity risk – some investments may become hard to value or sell at a desired time and price. In extreme circumstances this may affect the Fund’s ability to meet redemption requests upon demand.
- Derivative risk – the Fund may use derivatives (i.e. financial contracts whose value is linked to the expected price movements of an underlying investment) with the aim of reducing the overall costs and/or risks of the Fund.
- Capital erosion risk – all or part of the share class charges may be taken from capital. Should there not be sufficient capital growth in the Fund this may cause capital erosion.
For a more detailed explanation of risks, please refer to the “Risk Factors” section of the prospectus.
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European countries in which the Company is registered for distribution: Unless otherwise specified in this document, Citibank Europe plc (the Company’s Administrator) is responsible for processing subscription, repurchase and redemption orders and making other payments to Shareholders. Citibank Europe plc, 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland, email: [email protected]. The following information and documents are available from www.eifs.lu/jupiteram: Information on how orders (subscription, repurchase and redemption) can be made and how repurchase and redemption proceeds are paid; Information and access to procedures and arrangements related to investors’ rights and complaints handling; Information in relation to the tasks performed by the Company in a durable medium; The latest sales prospectus, the articles of association, the annual and semi-annual reports and the Key Investor Documents/Key Investor Information documents. The Manager may terminate marketing arrangements. Information on sustainability-related aspects is available from jupiteram.com.
France: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Les Grands Moulins de Pantin, 9 rue du Debarcadère 93500 Pantin, France.
Hong Kong: Jupiter Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited, Suite 1706, Alexandra House, 18, Chater Road, Central, Hong Kong.
Italy: Allfunds Bank S.A.U., Milan Branch, Via Bocchetto, 6, 20123 Milano, Italia; Societe Generale Securities Services S.p.A, Via Benigno Crespi 19A – MAC2, Milan. The sub-fund has been registered with the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) for the offer in Italy to retail investors.
Spain: Allfunds Bank, C/ La Estafeta 6, Edificio 3, 28109 Alcobendas, Madrid, Spain. For the purposes of distribution in Spain, the Company is registered with the Spanish Securities Markets Commission – Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (“CNMV”) under registration number 301, where complete information, including a copy of the marketing memorandum, is available from the Company authorised distributors. Subscriptions should be made through a locally authorised distributor. The net asset value is available on www.jupiteram.com.
Switzerland: Copies of the Memorandum and Articles of Association, the Prospectus, KIDs and the annual and semi-annual reports of the Company may be obtained free of charge from BNP Paribas 16 Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich, the Swiss paying agent.
Taiwan: Capital Gateway Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise, 9F/9F-1, No. 171, Songde Road, Xinyi District, Taipei City, Taiwan, R.O.C.
United Kingdom: Jupiter Investment Management Limited (UK Facilities Agent), The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ, United Kingdom. The Fund is recognised by the FCA.
Issued by Jupiter Asset Management (Europe) Limited (JAMEL, the Manager), The Wilde-Suite G01, The Wilde, 53 Merrion Square South, Dublin 2, D02 PR63, Ireland which is registered in Ireland (company number: 536049) and authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (number: C181816).
No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JAMEL.
This is not an invitation to subscribe for shares in the Jupiter Asset Management Series plc (the Company) or any other fund managed by Jupiter Asset Management (Europe) Limited or Jupiter Investment Management Limited. The Company is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
This information is only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the Company and its shares are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required.
The sub fund(s) may be subject to various other risk factors, please refer to the latest sales prospectus for further information.
Prospective purchasers of shares of the sub fund(s) of the Company should inform themselves as to the legal requirements, exchange control regulations and applicable taxes in the countries of their respective citizenship, residence or domicile. Subscriptions can only be made on the basis of the latest sales prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KID)/Key Investor Information Document (KIID), accompanied by the most recent audited annual report and semi-annual report. These documents are available for download from www.jupiteram.com or can be obtained free of charge upon request from any of:
European countries in which the Company is registered for distribution: Unless otherwise specified in this document, Citibank Europe plc (the Company’s Administrator) is responsible for processing subscription, repurchase and redemption orders and making other payments to Shareholders. Citibank Europe plc, 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland, email: [email protected]. The following information and documents are available from www.eifs.lu/jupiteram: Information on how orders (subscription, repurchase and redemption) can be made and how repurchase and redemption proceeds are paid; Information and access to procedures and arrangements related to investors’ rights and complaints handling; Information in relation to the tasks performed by the Company in a durable medium; The latest sales prospectus, the articles of association, the annual and semi-annual reports and the Key Investor Documents/Key Investor Information documents. The Manager may terminate marketing arrangements. Information on sustainability-related aspects is available from jupiteram.com.
France: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Les Grands Moulins de Pantin, 9 rue du Debarcadère 93500 Pantin, France.
Hong Kong: Jupiter Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited, Suite 1706, Alexandra House, 18, Chater Road, Central, Hong Kong.
Italy: Allfunds Bank S.A.U., Milan Branch, Via Bocchetto, 6, 20123 Milano, Italia; Societe Generale Securities Services S.p.A, Via Benigno Crespi 19A – MAC2, Milan. The sub-fund has been registered with the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) for the offer in Italy to retail investors.
Spain: Allfunds Bank, C/ La Estafeta 6, Edificio 3, 28109 Alcobendas, Madrid, Spain. For the purposes of distribution in Spain, the Company is registered with the Spanish Securities Markets Commission – Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (“CNMV”) under registration number 301, where complete information, including a copy of the marketing memorandum, is available from the Company authorised distributors. Subscriptions should be made through a locally authorised distributor. The net asset value is available on www.jupiteram.com.
Switzerland: Copies of the Memorandum and Articles of Association, the Prospectus, KIDs and the annual and semi-annual reports of the Company may be obtained free of charge from BNP Paribas 16 Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich, the Swiss paying agent.
Taiwan: Capital Gateway Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise, 9F/9F-1, No. 171, Songde Road, Xinyi District, Taipei City, Taiwan, R.O.C.
United Kingdom: Jupiter Investment Management Limited (UK Facilities Agent), The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ, United Kingdom. The Fund is recognised by the FCA.
Issued by Jupiter Asset Management (Europe) Limited (JAMEL, the Manager), The Wilde-Suite G01, The Wilde, 53 Merrion Square South, Dublin 2, D02 PR63, Ireland which is registered in Ireland (company number: 536049) and authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (number: C181816).
No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JAMEL.