Outlook 2024: Why quality matters in European equities
Mark Nichols and Mark Heslop discuss investing in quality growth companies in Europe and how these companies are better able to manage macroeconomic challenges.
These quality traits are particularly important as we move into a period that’s likely to be more challenging for economic growth. Companies are facing increased cost pressures and softening demand, which puts pressure on profitability and cash generation, particularly when compounded by higher financing costs due to higher interest rates.
We believe companies with high-quality business models will be the best-positioned to navigate the current macroeconomic environment. Pricing power, strong cash flows and balance sheet strength (including low or no debt) are especially important in this context. Over the long term we expect these companies to materially outperform the broader market.
The companies we seek are exposed to secular trends that can transcend business cycles and short-term market challenges. These secular trends include digitalisation and the increasing need for computing power, the shift of global supply chains to “friendly” or nearby countries due to geopolitical tensions, the green economy, and aging populations and health care innovation. We have found companies that benefit from these secular growth opportunities scattered across the European market.
For example, the Biden Administration’s efforts to isolate China has led to companies moving production of key technology components such as semiconductors to the US. In addition, the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US provides substantial financial support for green technology and upgrading the country’s manufacturing base.
Manufacturers throughout the semiconducter supply chain are benefitting from these plans to build new plants in the US, including several European companies. These companies include ASML, which produces lithography machines used in microchip production, and VAT Group, which makes vacuum valves used in microchip manufacturing. Advances in artificial intelligence also highlight the relentless need for more sophisticated microchips; we believe ASM, which produces wafer processing equipment, should benefit from increasing chip complexity.
Building efficiency is a key area requiring investment in the pursuit of a green economy, and companies such as Ireland’s Kingspan, which makes insulation products that reduce building emissions, and Italy’s Carel Industries, which makes heating and cooling control components, should be beneficiaries, in our view. Meanwhile, in health care, there are many companies helping in the development of drug therapies that can help save lives or prevent disease. Denmark’s Novo Nordisk is a leader in the treatment of diabetes and obesity, producing 50% of the world’s insulin supply. The company continuously reinvests in research and development to uncover new treatments and ensure that their products remain relevant.
European markets have remained out of favour for global investors in 2023, the outcome being that their market valuations remain below long-term averages (based on the price to future earnings ratio, or the share price of the stock divided by expected future per-share earnings). Meanwhile US stocks are trading at what we consider to be an extreme valuation premium to Europe and most other markets, based on history. US stocks’ premium versus Europe reflects in part the strong performance of the so-called Magnificent Seven US technology companies (this group includes Apple and Microsoft) as well as market concern about the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the European macroeconomic outlook.
We are cognisant of the challenges caused by such political uncertainty, such as disruptions to parts suppliers, energy shortages and inflation, but we would argue that the challenges caused by such events are global in nature rather than regional. We are seeking to invest in European companies that are global leaders, which are well positioned with manufacturing or servicing capabilities close to their customers around the world. In fact, our strategies contain companies that produce more of their revenues from outside of Europe than the relevant stock indices.
Europe is one of the world’s most important economic regions and is home to many leading global companies, and we believe that European stocks warrant their place in any well-diversified investment portfolio.
Please note: Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Outlook 2024: A pivotal year?
Periods of transition often raise interesting questions, and this year investors are faced with plenty as they look ahead to what 2024 may bring. Will Western central banks finally start cutting interest rates? Will geopolitical tensions calm or further escalate? And what might a fraught US Presidential election mean for the world?
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The value of active minds: independent thinking
A key feature of Jupiter’s investment approach is that we eschew the adoption of a house view, instead preferring to allow our specialist fund managers to formulate their own opinions on their asset class. As a result, it should be noted that any views expressed – including on matters relating to environmental, social and governance considerations – are those of the author(s), and may differ from views held by other Jupiter investment professionals.
Important information
This document is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. We recommend you discuss any investment decisions with a financial adviser, particularly if you are unsure whether an investment is suitable. Jupiter is unable to provide investment advice. Past performance is no guide to the future. Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing are not necessarily those of Jupiter as a whole and may be subject to change. This is particularly true during periods of rapidly changing market circumstances. For definitions please see the glossary at jupiteram.com. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of any information provided but no assurances or warranties are given. Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Jupiter Unit Trust Managers Limited (JUTM) and Jupiter Asset Management Limited (JAM), registered address: The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the prior permission of JUTM or JAM.