No free lunch: is a science of the stock market possible?

Complex systems and econophysics are intriguing and expanding fields of research that in time may lead to new signals to be incorporated in our investment model, say Amadeo Alentorn, Lead Investment Manager, and Matus Mrazik, Investment Manager, overseeing the academic research programme, Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return strategy.
11 June 2024 5 mins

Amadeo Alentorn and Matus Mrazik review recent academic research in the field of econophysics, and explain its relevance to investors.

Interacting agents and resulting market returns

Global industry signal

The animation above shows a simulation of the stock market using a model developed for studying changes of magnetism in metals. Herding behaviour (large colour blocks emerging in the upper box) leads to more volatile market conditions (sudden moves in the line, representing market cumulative returns, in the lower box). Lack of herding leads to less volatile market conditions.

There is an analogy between magnetism and social conformity. The opinion of each market agent (represented by squares within the grid in the animation) is affected by the opinions of his or her neighbours in the network, as well as by an external influence such as news. Due to noise or uncertainty, some agents may change their opinions and create local regions of dissent.

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The value of active minds: independent thinking

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