In managing the Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return (GEAR) Fund we in the Jupiter systematic team adopt a highly active approach. However, our approach is very different from traditional actively managed funds, often known as discretionary funds. Rather than employing traditional techniques, such as manually scrutinising company annual reports, meeting management teams, and studying by hand third-party analysis, we use computer-based techniques to analyse huge volumes of publicly available information. This allows us to scrutinise a large universe of global stocks against a number of proprietary stock selection criteria, which we have developed and refined over years. Although GEAR is a systematic fund, the principles on which our stock selection criteria are based are very intuitive, and easily understood by investors. They include well-known principles such as share price value, balance sheet quality, company growth characteristics, efficient use of capital, analyst sentiment and supportive market trends.
Our investment process is data-led, rather than opinion-led. We apply a disciplined, scientific methodology to testing hypotheses. We believe that systematic investing has an advantage because it is dispassionate rather than, as so much investment is, prone to human bias. Indeed, our process seeks to exploit other investors’ psychological and behavioural biases. We do not believe that markets are efficient, and we seek to exploit the inefficiencies we find. We seek to fine tune and improve our investment process iteratively in a rigorous way over time.
Why did GEAR perform poorly from mid-2018 to mid-2020?
GEAR’s performance was, along with many other factor funds, very disappointing from mid-2018 to mid-2020. Below we account for the reasons for that period of poor performance and explain the lessons we have learned.
The main reason for this period of poor performance was that market fundamentals became highly anomalous, compared to history before and since, and the fund’s process, as it was at that time, unfortunately found it challenging to cope with the exceptional length of this anomalous period. Investors were chasing growth at any price, and stock prices diverged markedly from their long-term relationships. Once the market normalised, the fund more than recovered.
In the light of the poor performance from mid-2018 to mid-2020, the investment team undertook a thorough review of the fund’s investment process. We closely examined how to improve the investment process to respond better when anomalous fundamentals persist for long periods of time. As a result of this review, we introduced numerous key enhancements to the investment process. We explain these enhancements in detail below (see “What lessons have you learned from the mid-2018 to mid-2020 period?”). In broad terms, the enhancements mean that the fund has become less reliant on fundamental factors, and has a better balance between fundamentals, investor sentiment, and technical market signals.
What do we mean by saying that market conditions were anomalous from mid-2018 to mid-2020?
Essentially, there was a long period from April 2018 to June 2020, when cheap high growth performed badly, and expensive low growth performed positively, contrary to both economic intuition and to market history before and since.
To show this in more detail, in the tables below we have split stocks from the North American region into three equally weighted portfolios based on their valuation (labelled “Expensive”, “Mid” and “Cheap”). Within each of these three portfolios we have performed a further split based on each of the stocks’ growth characteristics (“Low”, “Mid” and “High”), resulting in the total of nine portfolios shown.
The three tables show the annualised performance, relative to the market, of each of these nine portfolios in three distinct periods of time.
The table at the left shows the period from December 2003 to March 2018. An expensive, low growth portfolio is shown at the top left (-2.3% pa). A cheap high growth portfolio (bottom right box) outperformed the market by +3.7% pa. This is the pattern we expect. The green circles indicate the expected market patterns. The red circles (centre table) indicate the anomalous pattern that persisted from April 2018 to June 2020.
Typically, the fund would have been positioned to be short the top left hand box of each table, and long the bottom right hand box (although the investment process takes other factors and signals into account). This positioning contributed positively to fund performance during the period from fund inception to March 2018, and during the July 2020 to December 2022 period, but negatively during the April 2018 to June 2020 period.
The expected pattern – of cheap, high growth outperforming expensive, low growth – follows fundamental investment intuition. Cheap, high growth stocks are attractive; expensive, low growth stocks are unattractive. This is a pattern is found not only in markets but in everyday economic life. For example, other things being equal, people will prefer a faster, cheaper washing machine to a slower, more expensive one.
Over the long term, investing in growth at a reasonable price has outperformed. The anomaly is the table at the centre, we believe. Here, the normal pattern is reversed, as indicated by the red circles. From April 2018 to June 2020, expensive, low growth outperformed cheap, high growth. This was a period characterised by a very frothy equity market, in which investors continued to chase very expensive stocks with little regard for their fundamental valuation. Investors appeared to be chasing ‘growth at any price’. In parts of the market, bubbles were forming. For example, high tech, disruptive companies, which had not yet achieved growth in revenues, were aggressively bid up by investors willing to pay any price for the stars of tomorrow. This anomalous market coincided with the period of poor performance of the fund. Our model’s refusal to chase expensive prices even higher hurt our performance during this period. Since then, many of the bubbles have unwound, benefiting the fund.
What lessons have we learned from the mid-2018 to mid-2020 period?
Although we believe that in a long-term context, April 2018 to June 2020 was anomalous, we nevertheless have been determined to learn lessons from the performance of the fund during this period. Indeed, it has provided a stimulus to a program of enhancements we have introduced. It has led us to broaden our investment strategies to incorporate more diverse kinds of information. Among the new kinds of diverse data we have incorporated are:
- company executives’ transactions,
- ESG
- textual analysis of company earnings calls
- buy side sentiment from fund flows data.
These enhancements mean that the fund has become less reliant on fundamental factors, and we believe it now has a better balance between fundamentals, investor sentiment, and technical market signals.
Enhancements using alternative data
The fund’s period of poor performance from mid-2018 was mainly due to the anomalous behaviour of fundamental factors. In response, we decided to diversify by further increasing our sources of alpha outside traditional factors. Below are detailed the main five enhancements we have introduced that go beyond traditional factors by employing new kinds of alternative data. The dates show when each enhancement was introduced into the live fund’s process.
April 2020 Directors’ Deals
We added a new component to our company management stock selection criterion, to extract information from directors’ trades in their own company shares.
June 2020 Incorporation of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Metrics
We look not only at current levels but also at changes in them. One of the problems faced by ESG investing is that environmental, social and governance factors may in part overlap with other factors (for example, with company quality). We therefore took care that by increasing our exposure to E, S and G factors we were able to avoid accidental, unintended style tilts.
November 2020 Management Sentiment
We added a new component to our analyst sentiment criterion to capture sentiment and quality signals from transcripts of management earnings calls. This uses Natural Language Processing (NLP) to extract useful information from large bodies of text.
November 2021 Fund Flows
Fund flows are the cash that goes in and out of mutual funds, as investors decide how to allocate or reallocate their money. A problem with this kind of data in the past has been its low frequency and timeliness – it has not been very up to date. We were able to source data that was frequent and timely enough for us to develop useful signals. Our funds flow component was an enhancement to our sentiment stock selection criterion.
December 2022 Reputational Risk (ESG)
This again involved ESG and meant the incorporation of ESG-related reputational risk based on news items. We determined that this is helpful in allowing us to identify stocks with returns being driven by characteristics other than traditional factors.
This goes beyond our earlier integration of ESG metrics by capturing real time news flow.
Other enhancements
In addition to the above five enhancements, we also introduced a further five enhancements which were not related to alternative sources of data. These are described below.
September 2019 Value Quality Decoupling
We introduced this enhancement in direct response to the fund’s poor performance from mid-2018. Part of the reason for that poor performance was the difficulty the fund had in coping with market conditions in which factors such as value and quality were behaving anomalously for extended periods.
This enhancement allows greater flexibility within our dynamic valuation stock selection criterion. In total our investment process includes five distinct and diversified stock selection criteria. One of these, which we call ‘dynamic valuation’, seeks to identify shares with attractive valuations. It does this by analysing company data in a similar way to value investors, except that by being systematic it is able to accomplish this at a large scale, analysing the financial metrics of thousands of companies. Our dynamic valuation criterion is emphatically not a generic value factor: it is proprietary. It differs from generic value factors in numerous ways: for example, it also incorporates analysis of the quality of companies, because our studies indicate this can reduce the downside risk of value investing. The introduction of value quality decoupling in 2019 additionally meant we have been better able to navigate periods where both value and quality styles are out of favour. It therefore gives our investment process more flexibility.
September 2019 Conditional Downside Risk
We also introduced this enhancement in response to the fund’s poor performance from mid-2018. It is designed to improve the fund’s risk management by integrating the dynamic aspect of all our stock selection criteria to take into account not just expected returns but also the probability of losses.
This enhancement is designed to improve how we weigh the risk of factors in different types of market environment. Both our value quality decoupling enhancement and our conditional downside risk improvement allow our dynamic weighting scheme to operate with greater flexibility and responsiveness.
September 2019 Statistical Risk Model
This enhancement was not introduced directly because of the fund’s poor performance from mid-2018, but it has nonetheless proved very useful.
A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model, this bolsters our existing factor-based risk model framework and helps us to capture time varying risks understand large, complex data sets with many dimensions. The new model can automatically identify and control transitory sources of risk without the need to prespecify them, such as those driven by geopolitics and macroeconomics. This enhancement has proved useful in helping the fund navigate events such as the COVID pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and inflation (none of which are traditional factors).
January 2020 Revised Constraints
This enhancement was not introduced in view of lessons learned during the fund’s period of poor performance from mid-2018, but rather allows our fundamental analysis to be more granular, and to avoid structural biases. It enhances how country, sector and industry effects are controlled at the factor design stage, as well as at the portfolio construction stage, with the aim of improving risk-adjusted returns.
March 2021 High Conviction Rotations
Part of the reason for the fund’s period of poor performance from mid-2018 to mid-2020 was that it did not rotate responsively enough to changing market conditions. This enhancement allows the fund greater freedom to respond effectively across a wider range of market conditions. It is designed to improve the fund’s flexibility and responsiveness. It helps us better identify relationships between market environment indicators and factor return expectations and allows larger rotations between factors when the model has higher conviction.
The diagram below summarises all the main enhancements we have introduced to our investment process over the last few years.
How would the old model have performed during 2022?
How would GEAR have performed if the above-detailed enhancements had not been made? Thanks to the systematic nature of our investment process, we are able to answer this question, and the chart below shows how the old ‘2019 model’ would have performed last year, according to our simulations. The old model would have given us similar levels of returns in calendar year 2022, but with much higher volatility, and much less consistency.
The enhanced GEAR model generated more consistent returns in 2022
We regard this as evidence that the enhancements we have introduced since 2019 have helped to improve the consistency of returns. Specifically, by introducing more factors based on alternative datasets (including fund flows, ESG, company earnings transcripts, and director deals) we managed to reduce the impact of rotations in the more cyclical fundamental factors (value, quality, and growth). The old model would have relied much more for its returns on the value factor, giving us larger gains in the first half of 2022, but then suffering a larger drawdown during the period from May 2022 until July 2022.
How would GEAR have performed if it had the current model, back in 2018-2020?
If GEAR had included the above enhancements prior to 2018, our simulations indicate that it would have had much lower drawdown, as shown in the graph below.
Simulations indicate the enhancements would have helped in 2018-2020
Are you planning further enhancements in the future?
Yes. We are continuing to engage in continuous research efforts to enhance GEAR’s investment model to achieve the best outcome. Evolution of our investment process through rigorous research remains the focus of our day-to-day activities.
Performance
Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return Fund (I USD Acc)
FUND SPECIFIC RISKS
- Investment risk – there is no guarantee that the Fund will achieve its objective. A capital loss of some or all of the amount invested may occur. Furthermore, the Fund may exceed its volatility limit. A capital loss of some or all of the amount invested may occur.
- Company shares (i.e. equities) risk – the value of Company shares (i.e. equities) and similar investments may go down as well as up in response to the performance of individual companies and can be affected by daily stock market movements and general market conditions. Other influential factors include political, economic news, company earnings and significant corporate events.
- Derivative risk – the Fund uses derivatives to generate returns and/or to reduce costs and the overall risk of the Fund. Using derivatives can involve a higher level of risk. A small movement in the price of an underlying investment may result in a disproportionately large movement in the price of the derivative investment. Derivatives also involve counterparty risk where the institutions acting as counterparty to derivatives may not meet their contractual obligations.
- Currency risk – the Fund can be exposed to different currencies and may use techniques to try to reduce the effects of changes in the exchange rate between the currency of the underlying investments and the base currency of the Fund. These techniques may not eliminate all the currency risk. The value of your shares may rise and fall as a result of exchange rate movements.
- Stock connect risk – the Fund may invest in China A-Shares through the China-Hong Kong Stock Connect (“Stock Connect”). Stock Connect is governed by regulations which are untested and subject to change. Trading limitations and restrictions on foreign ownership may constrain the Fund’s ability to pursue its investment strategy.
- The fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
- The fund may be subject to various other risk factors, please refer to the latest sales prospectus for further information. The KIID and Prospectus are available from Jupiter on request.
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A key feature of Jupiter’s investment approach is that we eschew the adoption of a house view, instead preferring to allow our specialist fund managers to formulate their own opinions on their asset class. As a result, it should be noted that any views expressed – including on matters relating to environmental, social and governance considerations – are those of the author(s), and may differ from views held by other Jupiter investment professionals.
Important information
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the latest sales prospectus of the sub-fund and to the Key Information Document (KID) (for investors in the EU), or Key Investor Information Document (KIID) (for investors in the UK), particularly to the sub-fund’s investment objective and characteristics, before making any final investment decisions.
This document is intended for investment professionals and is not for the use or benefit of other persons, including retail investors.
This document is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. Initial charges are likely to have a greater proportionate effect on returns if investments are liquidated in the shorter term.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Company/Holding/Stock examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Quoted yields are not a guide or guarantee for the expected level of distributions to be received. The yield may fluctuate significantly during times of extreme market and economic volatility. Awards and Ratings should not be taken as a recommendation. The views expressed are those of the Fund Manager(s) / author(s) at the time of preparation, are not necessarily those of Jupiter as a whole and may be subject to change. This is particularly true during periods of rapidly changing market circumstances. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided but no assurance or warranties are given.
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United Kingdom: Jupiter Investment Management Limited (UK Facilities Agent), The Zig Zag Building, 70 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 6SQ, United Kingdom. The Fund is recognised by the FCA.
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Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Because of this, an investor is not certain to make a profit on an investment and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments to rise or fall.
This communication provides information relating to Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Jupiter Asset Management Series plc. Jupiter Asset Management Series plc is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
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The Fund is not authorised by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) in Hong Kong. and is not available to retail investors in Hong Kong. This document is distributed to professional investors only and has not been reviewed by any regulatory body in Hong Kong. It is for reference only and for those persons or entities in any jurisdiction or country where the information in this document and use thereof is not contrary to local law or regulation. It is intended solely for the use of the person to whom it has been addressed and delivered and shall not be reproduced in any form or transmitted to any other third party. In particular: (i) no offer or invitation to subscribe for shares in the Fund may be made to the public in Hong Kong; (ii) this document has not been approved by the SFC or any other regulatory authority in Hong Kong and accordingly shares in the Fund may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong by means of this document or any other document other than in circumstances which do not constitute an offer to the public for the purposes of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance (“SFO”), as may be amended from time to time. If you are in doubt, please consider seeking independent professional advice.
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No information in this document should be interpreted as investment advice and it is not an invitation to subscribe for shares of the Fund. If you are unsure of the suitability of this investment please contact your Financial Adviser. Prospective purchasers of Shares should inform themselves as to the legal requirements, exchange control regulations and applicable taxes in the countries of their respective citizenship, residence or domicile. Please ensure you read the Prospectus (including the Singapore Addendum) for this Fund before making an investment decision. These documents contain important information including risk factors, details of charges and selling restrictions.
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Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Because of this, an investor is not certain to make a profit on an investment and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments to rise or fall.
The Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return Fund has not been registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, nor the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. None of the shares may be offered or sold, directly or indirectly in the United States or to any US Person, unless the securities are registered under the Act, or an exemption from the registration requirements of the Act is available. A US Person is defined as (a) any individual who is a citizen or resident of the United States for federal income tax purposes; (b) a corporation, partnership or other entity created or organized under the laws of or existing in the United States; (c) an estate or trust the income of which is subject to United States federal income tax regardless of whether such income is effectively connected with a United States trade or business.
This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Market and exchange rate movements can cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than originally invested. Initial charges are likely to have a greater proportionate effect on returns if investments are liquidated in the shorter term.
Past performance is no guide to the future. Company examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell. Quoted yields are not a guide or guarantee for the expected level of distributions to be received. The yield may fluctuate significantly during times of extreme market and economic volatility. Awards and ratings should not be taken as a recommendation.
The views expressed are at a point of time and are subject to change. This is particularly true during periods of rapidly changing market circumstances. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided but no assurance or warranties are given.
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Legal Notice for Residents of Uruguay: The sale of the securities qualifies as a private placement pursuant to section 2 of Uruguayan law 18,627. The securities must not be offered or sold to the public in Uruguay, except in circumstances which do not constitute a public offering or distribution under Uruguayan laws and regulations. The securities are not and will not be registered with the Financial Services Superintendency of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The securities correspond to investment funds that are not investment funds regulated by Uruguayan law 16,774 dated September 27, 1996, as amended.